Move the slider to the desired time period. All measures are calculated using rolling 5-year averages, starting from 1995-1999 and ending in 2016-2020.

The transition to the green economy is transforming the global landscape of competitiveness.

With the number of countries with net-zero emissions commitments steadily increasing, demand for renewable energy technologies, such as wind turbines, solar panels and lithium-ion batteries, is burgeoning. Growing worldwide recognition of the importance of achieving greater prosperity without harming the planet is also driving unprecedented growth opportunities in a wide range of products with environmental benefits, from water conservation to waste-management to air-pollution monitoring. At the same time, fossil-fuel-based production is increasingly perceived as risky and time-limited, and investors are starting to shift capital out of carbon-intensive assets.

Economic success in the green economy will largely depend on the capacities of countries to respond to this shift.

Countries that cultivate the capabilities to competitively produce green products and technologies are likely to thrive in the green transition. Other countries that are slow or fail to diversify away from fossil-fuel-based products or other polluting modes of production risk falling behind in their global competitiveness (e.g. falling demand for their exports) and future growth and development prospects.

What is the Green Transition Navigator and what does it tell us?

The Green Transition Navigator is designed to help map and manage the shifting landscape of green competitiveness for different countries. It is underpinned by recent peer-reviewed research by Mealy and Teytelboym (2020) and Andres et al (2023). Drawing on over 20 years of detailed trade data, it showcases novel metrics of green competitiveness, transition risk and future green diversification potential across 231 countries and territories.

The Green Transition Navigator also enables the exploration of countries’ export strengths in green products, highlights the degree to which countries might face difficulties transitioning away from specific brown products, and helps identify new green industrial growth opportunities that align with countries’ existing productive capabilities.

Methodology

The Green Transition Navigator is based on previous research by Mealy and Teytelboym, 2020, which developed a quantitative methodology for measuring countries' current green production capabilities, identifying new green export opportunities, and predicting future green export growth. It also incorporates recent work by Andres et al, 2023, which develops measures of country lock-in and transition possibilities to climate-compatible areas of comparative advantage, based on countries' exports of brown products.

Both papers draw on existing work in economic geography that has shown that places are more likely to develop a competitive advantage in proximate products and sectors that involve similar (or 'related') underlying production know-how to those they are already competitive in (Hidalgo et al., 2007; Neffke et al., 2011). They also leverage previous research on economic complexity, which has demonstrated that developing competitiveness in more complex products or industries tends to generate higher future growth and diversification outcomes (Hidalgo et al., 2007; Hausmann et al., 2007).

Definitions and data

Green products are defined as products with environmental benefits, and are based on a compilation of the APEC, OECD and WTO green goods classifications.

Brown products are defined as products that are likely to decline in demand as the world mitigates climate change.

Key definitions for all measures used in the Green Transition Navigator are available in the glossary, and more detail can be found in the relevant papers. Product lists and data presented in this tool are available upon request.

The Green Transition Navigator measures are calculated using country-level trade data at the HS1992 6-digit level from CEPII's BACI database. The data shown is based on annual averages in trade values for rolling 5-year-periods from 1995-1999 to 2016-2020 (where no time range is selected or shown, the data is based on the most recent period, which is 2016-2020). This approach was taken in order to prevent the analysis from being skewed by short-term fluctuations in trade.

When using this tool

Please note that the analysis presented by the Green Transition Navigator is not prescriptive or intended to be definitive. It is up to the user to consider the relative merits of proximity and complexity, and to use and interpret the analysis presented alongside other relevant indicators and information. While empirical analysis has shown that countries have a higher probability of developing future competitiveness in more proximate products, this does not mean that targeting more distant sectors is without its benefits.

Please give credit when using the data or analysis presented here in other work. Suggested citation: Andres, P and Mealy, P (2023) Green Transition Navigator. Retrieved from www.green-transition-navigator.org.